Your best-selling product just went out of stock.
You didn't notice until a customer emailed asking when it's coming back. You check Shopify. Zero units. You check your supplier. 5-day lead time.
Five days of your bestseller showing "Sold Out."
Here's what that actually costs.
The Obvious Cost
Lost sales. Simple math:
- Product sells 10 units/day at $40
- Out of stock for 5 days
- 10 x 5 x $40 = $2,000 in lost revenue
That's the number everyone thinks about. It's not the real number.
The Hidden Costs
1. Customers don't wait — they leave
When someone sees "Sold Out," they don't bookmark your page and check back later. They google the product and buy from someone else.
You didn't just lose one sale. You introduced them to your competitor.
2. Ad spend goes to waste
If you're running ads to that product page, you're paying for traffic that can't convert.
$50/day in ads x 5 days = $250 spent sending people to a page that says "Sold Out."
3. Search rankings drop
Google notices when products go out of stock. Extended stockouts can hurt your organic rankings. Getting that position back takes months.
4. The "back in stock" email underperforms
You think you'll recover those sales when inventory returns. Reality: back-in-stock emails get 10-20% open rates. Most of those customers are already gone.
The Real Math
For a product doing $400/day in revenue:
| Cost | Amount |
|---|---|
| Lost sales (5 days) | $2,000 |
| Wasted ad spend | $250 |
| Customers lost to competitors | $500+ lifetime value |
| Recovery email revenue | Maybe $200 back |
Actual damage: $2,500+ per stockout event
And this is one product. How many SKUs do you have?
Why It Keeps Happening
Store owners know stockouts are bad. They still happen because:
- You're managing inventory in a spreadsheet (or your head)
- You check stock levels when you remember to
- You don't know your real sell-through velocity
- Supplier lead times surprise you
- Bestsellers spike unexpectedly and you're caught off guard
"I'll reorder when it gets low" doesn't work when "low" becomes "zero" over a weekend.
What You Actually Need
-
Velocity tracking — How fast is each SKU actually selling? Not last month. Right now.
-
Predictive alerts — "You'll run out of Blue Widget in 6 days" — not "Blue Widget is out of stock."
-
Lead time awareness — If your supplier takes 5 days, you need to reorder when you have 7+ days of stock. Automatically.
-
Dead stock identification — The flip side. What's not selling that's tying up cash?
What We're Building
Waveloom's Inventory Autopilot:
- Connects to your Shopify store
- Tracks real-time velocity per SKU
- Predicts stockout dates based on current trends
- Alerts you before it's too late — not after
- Identifies slow movers you should discount
No spreadsheets. No "I forgot to check." No $2,500 surprises.
Coming Q2 2025
Inventory Autopilot is on the roadmap after Support and Price.
Want early access?
Early supporters get 50% off for life.
Had a brutal stockout recently? I'd love to hear the story. Reply anytime.
— Tiago